Last night in the Hall of Fame game, the new kickoff rules made their debut. The new style requires the kicking team to lineup on the opposing 40-yard line (except for the kicker) and the receiving team to lineup on their own 35 (excluding the kick returner(s)). The kicker still kicks off from the 35 but the kick must be placed between the 20 and the endzone where the kick returner(s) are placed to receive it. Once the ball bounces or is caught the players lined up in the setup zone are released to move. If the kicker puts it in the endzone or through the endzone and it is not returned, the ball is placed at the 30-yard line. If the kicker misses the landing zone short, right, or left, it will result in an illegal procedure penalty and the ball will be spotted on the receiving team’s 40-yard line.
The reasoning by the NFL for the new rules is to encourage more returns to make the game more exciting by creating more returns, while making the returns safer. Do these new rules actually produce better results in these categories?
Same Starting Field Position
Using the play-by-play from last night’s Hall of Fame game, I calculated the average starting field position from kickoffs was the 26.1-yard line in 7 kickoffs. Houston’s average starting spot was the 25.75-yard line while Chicago’s was 26.67 making less than a yard of difference between the two teams. Chicago’s best return spotted them at the 32 while Houston’s best spot was placed at the 30 from a touchback.
Putting these numbers side-by-side with a randomly selected game from the 2023 regular season (Pittsburgh vs Cleveland, week 2, chosen by a random number generator) they are very similar. The average starting position after kickoffs in this game was the 23.5 yard line. This may suggest a potentially significant difference but not when that number is explained. In this game there were 11 kickoffs. 10 of those went for a touchback. This led Cleveland’s average start to the 25 since all of their returns were touchbacks. Pittsburgh on the other hand had an outlier where the ball was kicked to the 9-yard line with no return. This was an unusual kickoff play but lowered their average start to the 21.8-yard line.
That was a lot of numbers thrown at you so what does this all prove? The fact that the difference in average starting position is only 2.6 yards does not prove the NFL’s idea of more excitement due to starting position. Watching more returns sounds intriguing, but when the teams end up between the 20 and the 30 most of the time anyways, it may not be worth it.
How Much Safer Can It Be?
Fortunately in both games, no kickoffs resulted in any injuries. The NFL says that the new rules are safer because you eliminate the kicking team getting a full-speed start at the returner. This is logical but with how many touchbacks occurred, how often did this situation occur and how many injuries does this cause? This is more of a problem with punts because the gunners typically get to the returner around the same time as the ball and the returner is vulnerable while looking up to try to field the ball. In the old kickoff the ball typically reached the returner long before any kickoff team member could get there giving the returner a good chance to defend themselves.
With more returns doesn’t that raise the chance of injury? With the higher percentage of touchbacks in the old ways the percentage of injuries per kickoff were not that high. In the new kickoff, as soon as the returner fields the ball he has 10 defenders coming for him and it is hard for his blockers to stop defenders that have a 5 yard of running head start.
Players Having to Adjust
In last night’s game there were two illegal formation penalties in seven kickoffs due to players moving before the ball bounced or was fielded. These players have moved when the ball was kicked for as long as they have played. It has become instinct to start the play as soon as they see the ball leave the kicker’s foot. Out of courtesy both of these penalties were declined, but they likely will not be in the regular season. While these players should have the discipline to adjust to the new rule, this error will still be a common occurrence for a while causing many unnecessary and frustrating penalties this season.
Will the New Kickoff Benefit the 2024 Season
With similar starting field position, a statistically higher chance of injury, and more penalties, will these rules make the game that much more exciting? I agree, big kick returns and returns for touchdowns are exciting and can be a big momentum shift. However, with the small sample size we have from last night’s game, there is no proof so far that says these kinds of returns will be a more common occurrence. It could definitely be worth testing out for the rest of the preseason, but if similar results are shown, the NFL should consider keeping the original kickoff rules.
Written by: Colin Hackshaw | August 2nd 2024
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